Assess forecast judgment by asking how a seller connects an expected outcome to current opportunity evidence. A confident close date is not useful if nobody can explain the buyer’s decision process.
Use fictional opportunities and qualitative categories. The exercise should test reasoning, not encourage disclosure of a former employer’s pipeline.
Prepare an evidence packet
Include fictional opportunities with different conditions: an enthusiastic user without an approver, a completed evaluation with unresolved commercial questions, and a buyer with a confirmed next step.
Ask the candidate to describe the outlook, identify uncertainty, and choose the next information to obtain.
Review the evidence
| Question | What it reveals |
|---|---|
| Who can decide? | Whether the buying authority is understood |
| What has the buyer committed to do? | Progress beyond seller activity |
| What remains unresolved? | Technical, commercial, or organizational dependencies |
| Why this timing? | Evidence behind the expected date |
| What could change the outlook? | Awareness of uncertainty |
| What is the next action? | A practical route to better information |
Salesforce’s forecasting materials connect forecasts to opportunity records and stage categories. That makes consistent underlying evidence important; the category alone should not replace judgment. Salesforce forecast setup guidance.
Change a fact
Tell the candidate that a key buyer has postponed the decision meeting. Ask how they would update the outlook and communicate the change.
Look for an evidence-based revision rather than preserving the previous forecast to avoid an uncomfortable conversation.
Distinguish optimism from a forecast
A seller can remain enthusiastic about an opportunity while acknowledging that timing is uncertain. Ask them to explain that distinction to a manager.
Avoid scoring pessimism as inherently more accurate. The goal is a proportionate conclusion based on the supplied evidence.
Assess learning
Ask how the candidate would review previous forecasts and identify recurring errors in their assumptions. They should be able to improve the process without simply changing labels after the outcome is known.
Use the sales coaching exercise and sales motion comparison. Discuss a commercial leadership search with Refery.